OBAMA LOSING INDIES - AT 10:30 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen, whose polls we often cite here, and Doug Schoen, a Democratic pollster and strategist, agree in a Wall Street Journal column, that the president faces a political crisis among independents:

Mr. Obama's approval among likely voters has dropped to the low-50s in most polls, and the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters shows him slightly below the 50% mark. This is a relatively low rating for new presidents. Mr. Obama's approval rating began to slide in a serious way in early July, triggered by a bad unemployment report.

A look at more detailed data shows why Mr. Obama's ratings are likely to drop even further.

A CNN poll released Nov. 6 found that 47% of Americans believe the top issue facing the country is the economy, while only 17% say its health care. However, the bulk of the president's efforts over the past six months have been not on the economy but on health care, an issue in which he continues to draw negative ratings.

And...

Even more fundamentally, a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted from Oct. 15-18 shows that the president has now reached a point where less than a majority of Americans believe he will make the right decisions for the country.

And the strategy?

What then, is Mr. Obama to do?

He has found himself in a false and arguably artificial conundrum on health care, with the two alternatives being his bill with a public option and a trillion-dollar price tag, or no bill at all. While the failure to pass a health-care bill could be devastating for his administration, polling suggests that ramming through an expensive bill with a public option (potentially using procedural techniques in the Senate) could divide America and not improve his standing with the public.

What is remarkable is the administration's indifference to public opinion.

Finally:

The off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia were indeed a warning sign to Mr. Obama. While the presidents ratings aren't likely to dip much further by year's end—given the size and support of his base—by focusing exclusively on his base he could create lasting political problems that plague the remainder of his term.

Unless Mr. Obama changes his approach and starts governing in a more fiscally conservative, bipartisan manner, the independents that provided his margin of victory in 2008 and gave the Democrats control of Congress will likely swing back to the Republicans, putting Democratic control of Congress in real jeopardy.

COMMENT:  Part of the problem seems to be the insistence of liberals that they know what is best for us, and that we'll eventually understand once they work their intellectual magic. 

Another problem is the Democratic belief that, the more they give away to constituent groups, the stronger is their political machine.  Some truth there, but it doesn't get you past 50%, which, the last time I looked, is what is needed to win an election.  The president got 53% in 2008, not exactly a guarantee of the future.

November 14, 2009 

OBAMA LOSING INDIES - AT 10:30 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen, whose polls we often cite here, and Doug Schoen, a Democratic pollster and strategist, agree in a Wall Street Journal column, that the president faces a political crisis among independents:

Mr. Obama's approval among likely voters has dropped to the low-50s in most polls, and the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters shows him slightly below the 50% mark. This is a relatively low rating for new presidents. Mr. Obama's approval rating began to slide in a serious way in early July, triggered by a bad unemployment report.

A look at more detailed data shows why Mr. Obama's ratings are likely to drop even further.

A CNN poll released Nov. 6 found that 47% of Americans believe the top issue facing the country is the economy, while only 17% say its health care. However, the bulk of the president's efforts over the past six months have been not on the economy but on health care, an issue in which he continues to draw negative ratings.

And...

Even more fundamentally, a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted from Oct. 15-18 shows that the president has now reached a point where less than a majority of Americans believe he will make the right decisions for the country.

And the strategy?

What then, is Mr. Obama to do?

He has found himself in a false and arguably artificial conundrum on health care, with the two alternatives being his bill with a public option and a trillion-dollar price tag, or no bill at all. While the failure to pass a health-care bill could be devastating for his administration, polling suggests that ramming through an expensive bill with a public option (potentially using procedural techniques in the Senate) could divide America and not improve his standing with the public.

What is remarkable is the administration's indifference to public opinion.

Finally:

The off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia were indeed a warning sign to Mr. Obama. While the presidents ratings aren't likely to dip much further by year's end—given the size and support of his base—by focusing exclusively on his base he could create lasting political problems that plague the remainder of his term.

Unless Mr. Obama changes his approach and starts governing in a more fiscally conservative, bipartisan manner, the independents that provided his margin of victory in 2008 and gave the Democrats control of Congress will likely swing back to the Republicans, putting Democratic control of Congress in real jeopardy.

COMMENT:  Part of the problem seems to be the insistence of liberals that they know what is best for us, and that we'll eventually understand once they work their intellectual magic. 

Another problem is the Democratic belief that, the more they give away to constituent groups, the stronger is their political machine.  Some truth there, but it doesn't get you past 50%, which, the last time I looked, is what is needed to win an election.  The president got 53% in 2008, not exactly a guarantee of the future.

November 14, 2009